Person: Mironov, Maxim
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Maxim
Last Name
Mironov
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IE University
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IE Business School
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Finance
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Publication Tax Enforcement and Income Diversion: Evidence after Putin’s election in 2000(Now Publisher, 2019-10-08) Gómez, Juan Pedro; Mironov, Maxim; https://ror.org/02jjdwm75Using a direct estimate of income diversion for a large sample of Russian firms from 1999 through 2004, we show that an increase in tax enforcement after Putin’s election in 2000 is associated with a decrease in the appropriation of private rents by insiders both in firms explicitly targeted as tax evaders and among the largest firms in the sample. We interpret the latter as evidence consistent with a simultaneous spillover effect derived from the threat posed by tighter tax enforcement. This effect persists both economically and statistically in a subsample of listed companies after controlling for changes in firm-level corporate governance.Publication Using Soccer Games as an Instrument to Forecast the Spread of COVID-19 in Europe(Elsevier, 2021-11) Gómez, Juan Pedro; Mironov, Maxim; Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad; Agencia Estatal de Investigación; European Regional Development Fund; https://ror.org/02jjdwm75We provide strong empirical support for the contribution of soccer games held in Europe to the spread of the COVID-19 virus in March 2020. We analyze more than 1,000 games across 194 regions from 10 European countries. Daily cases of COVID-19 grow significantly faster in regions where at least one soccer game took place two weeks earlier, consistent with the existence of an incubation period. These results weaken as we include stadiums with smaller capacity. We discuss the relevance of these variables as instruments for the identification of the causal effect of COVID-19 on firms, the economy, and financial markets.Publication COVID-19 and the Value of CEOs : The Unintended Effect of Soccer Games across European Stocks(2020) Gómez, Juan Pedro; Mironov, Maxim; https://ror.org/02jjdwm75This paper studies the effect of the number of cases of COVID-19 on stock returns from over 3,500 publicly listed firms headquartered across 167 regions in 10 European countries. We instrument the number of cases per million inhabitant in each region with its population, density, and the soccer games celebrated in the region. Regions that hosted a soccer match during March show 30% more accumulated cases of COVID-19 in the same month. Within the same country and industry, an increase in the number of instrumented cases per million people in the region during March implies a decrease in stock returns over March and April. The market discount increases significantly among firms managed by CEOs 60 years and older. Overall, we interpret this as evidence of the market anticipating the potential loss of firm value in the event of the CEO dies of COVID-19Publication Assessing the Impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports(SSRN, 2023-02-23) Mironov, Maxim; Babina, Tania; Hilgenstock, Benjamin; Itskhoki, Oleg; Ribakova, Elina; https://ror.org/02jjdwm75We use a unique high-frequency Russian customs dataset to evaluate the impact of international sanctions on Russia – focusing on Russian crude oil and oil products exports, as they are the key sources of export earnings and government revenues. We study the effects of two focal sanctions measures – the EU embargo and G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil, which both took effect on December 5, 2022. We find that Russia was able to redirect crude oil exports from Europe to alternative markets such as India, China, and Turkey but that export earnings were curbed substantially by the sizable discounts that Russian exporters had to accept in market segments where the impeding EU embargo lowered demand, e.g., exports from Baltic Sea ports – a dynamic that only became more pronounced after the embargo and price cap’s taking effect. However, we do not find crude oil discounts as large as those reflected in Urals prices towards the end of 2022. In particular, prices in market segments that are unaffected by lower European demand, e.g., exports from Russia’s Pacific Ocean ports, have not dropped in a meaningful way and shipments do not appear to comply with the price cap. What the EU embargo and G7 price cap have, thus, triggered is a fundamental fragmentation of the market for Russian crude oil. Based on our analysis, we conclude that a central focus of policy going forward should be the enforcement of existing sanctions on Russian oil – along with the lowering of the oil price cap. As far as oil products are concerned, we show that it is significantly less feasible to redirect exports away from the European market. This suggests that the EU embargo on oil products, which took effect on February 5, 2023, will prove to be a powerful additional tool to further curb Russian export and fiscal revenues.Publication Do Markets Price CEOs Health Hazards? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic(World Scientific, 2023-01-20) Gómez, Juan Pedro; Mironov, Maxim; Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades; Agencia Estatal de Investigación; European Regional Development Fund; https://ror.org/02jjdwm75We find evidence that markets anticipate the potential loss of firm value in the event of the CEO falling sick and eventually dying of COVID-19 in a sample of almost 3000 listed firms from across 137 regions in 10 European countries. First, we use soccer games as “super-spreader” events. The instrumented number of infected cases per capita in the region where company headquarters are located predicts a significant drop in stock returns during March and April 2020 for firms managed by CEOs with a higher probability of dying from COVID-19. Second, we show that the stock price of these firms increases significantly the day on which positive news on the development of COVID-19 vaccines are released in the market.Publication Russian Oil Exports Under International Sanctions(SSRN, 2023-05-09) Mironov, Maxim; Hilgenstock, Benjamin; Shapoval, Nataliia; Ribakova, Elina; Babina, Tania; Itskhoki, Oleg; https://ror.org/02jjdwm75We use a unique, comprehensive transactions-level dataset on Russian exports to evaluate the impact of international sanctions—focusing on crude oil and oil products. Relying on data through the first quarter of 2023, we find that the sanctions coalition’s strategy to keep Russian oil on the global market, while restricting the country’s export earnings and fiscal revenues, is showing results. Importantly, global oil prices did not increase since the taking-effect of the EU embargo on crude oil on December 5, 2022—a key concern of some coalition governments. Rather, discounts on Russian crude oil exports widened considerably in segments of the market, where demand conditions changed due to the exit of European buyers. Russian crude oil and oil product exports, in value terms, fell by $15.6 billion in 2023Q1 vs. 2022Q4 and account for 40% of the total decline in goods exports. We estimate contributions of 6.1 billion from smaller volumes, $4.2 billion from lower global prices, as well as $5.2 billion from wider discounts. At the same time, 2023Q1 budget revenues from hydrocarbons came in 47% below the previous quarter. Even so, our findings also point to violations of the price cap and underscore the urgent need for more rigorous enforcement. Specifically, export prices at the critical Pacific Ocean port of Kozmino stood at around $73/barrel in 2023Q1—with 96% of volumes sold above the $60/barrel threshold—, while a substantial share of shipments continues to involve Western-owned or –insured vessels. Based on our analysis, we conclude that a critical focus of sanctions policy going forward should be the enforcement of existing sanctions on Russian oil.Publication Going Negative in Autocracy: A Field Experiment at the Moscow Mayoral Elections(Cambridge University Press, 2024-10-14) Mironov, Maxim; Petrachkova, Alexandra; https://ror.org/02jjdwm75Opposition in autocracies often uses negativism against the regime to frame its principal message. This study is the first to experimentally evaluate the effectiveness of a negative campaign on a regime candidate’s vote share. For the field experiment conducted during the 2013 Moscow mayoral election, we published a newspaper criticizing the incumbent mayor. We distributed approximately 130,000 copies near the entrances of 20 stations on four randomly selected metro lines one month prior to the election. We found that the incumbent’s vote share was 1.7 percentage points lower at the voting stations where the newspaper was distributed. These votes go to other candidates who address issues raised by the negative campaign. Anti-regime campaigning does not suppress turnout or increase disapproval voting.