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Bertoli, Andrew

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Andrew
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Bertoli
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IE University
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IE School of Politics, Economics & Global Affairs
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International Relations
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2023 - 20242
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Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
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    Publication
    Analyzing the Impact of Events Through Surveys: Formalizing Biases and Introducing the Dual Randomized Survey Design
    (SSRN, 2024-02-13) Bertoli, Andrew; Jakli, Laura; Pascoe, Henry; https://ror.org/02jjdwm75
    Social scientists and public opinion analysts often use survey data to test how important events impact respondent beliefs, attitudes, and preferences. This paper offers a formal analysis of the pre-event/post-event survey approach, including designs that seek to reduce bias using quota sampling, rolling cross-sections, and panels. Our analysis distinguishes between various sources of bias and clarifies the comparative strengths and weaknesses of each approach. We then propose a modified panel design that can reduce bias in cases where asking respondents to complete the same survey twice could impact their responses in Wave 2. This issue is acute when fielding conventional pre-event/post-event panels due to the short time horizon between Waves 1 and 2. Our analysis elucidates important insights that can improve social scientists’ ability to study the causal impact of important events through surveys.
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    Leader age and international conflict: A regression discontinuity analysis
    (Sage, 2023-12-07) Bertoli, Andrew; Dafoe, Allan; Trager, Robert ; University of California; Charles Koch Foundation; https://ror.org/02jjdwm75
    Does leader age matter for the likelihood of interstate conflict? Many studies in biology, psychology, and physiology have found that aggression tends to decline with age throughout the adult lifespan, particularly in males. Moreover, a number of major international conflicts have been attributed to young leaders, including the conquests of Alexander the Great and the ambitious military campaigns of Napoleon. However, the exact nature of the relationship between leader age and international conflict has been difficult to study because of the endogeneity problem. Leaders do not come to power randomly. Rather, many domestic and international factors influence who becomes the leader of a country, and some of these factors could correlate with the chances of interstate conflict. For instance, wary democratic publics might favor older leaders when future international conflict seems likely, inducing a relationship between older leaders and interstate conflict. This article overcomes such confounding by using a regression discontinuity design. Specifically, it looks at close elections of national leaders who had large differences in age. It finds that when older candidates barely defeated younger ones, countries were much less likely to engage in military conflict. Its sample is also fairly representative of democracies more broadly, meaning that the findings likely hold true for cases outside the sample. The results demonstrate the important role that individuals play in shaping world politics. They also illustrate the value of design-based inference for learning about important questions in the study of international relations and peace science.