Publication:
Leader age and international conflict: A regression discontinuity analysis

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorBertoli, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorDafoe, Allan
dc.contributor.authorTrager, Robert
dc.contributor.funderUniversity of California
dc.contributor.funderCharles Koch Foundation
dc.contributor.rorhttps://ror.org/02jjdwm75
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-08T12:09:46Z
dc.date.available2024-11-08T12:09:46Z
dc.date.issued2023-12-07
dc.description.abstractDoes leader age matter for the likelihood of interstate conflict? Many studies in biology, psychology, and physiology have found that aggression tends to decline with age throughout the adult lifespan, particularly in males. Moreover, a number of major international conflicts have been attributed to young leaders, including the conquests of Alexander the Great and the ambitious military campaigns of Napoleon. However, the exact nature of the relationship between leader age and international conflict has been difficult to study because of the endogeneity problem. Leaders do not come to power randomly. Rather, many domestic and international factors influence who becomes the leader of a country, and some of these factors could correlate with the chances of interstate conflict. For instance, wary democratic publics might favor older leaders when future international conflict seems likely, inducing a relationship between older leaders and interstate conflict. This article overcomes such confounding by using a regression discontinuity design. Specifically, it looks at close elections of national leaders who had large differences in age. It finds that when older candidates barely defeated younger ones, countries were much less likely to engage in military conflict. Its sample is also fairly representative of democracies more broadly, meaning that the findings likely hold true for cases outside the sample. The results demonstrate the important role that individuals play in shaping world politics. They also illustrate the value of design-based inference for learning about important questions in the study of international relations and peace science.
dc.description.peerreviewedyes
dc.description.statusPublished
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.citationBertoli, A., Dafoe, A., & Trager, R. (2024). Leader age and international conflict: A regression discontinuity analysis. Journal of Peace Research, 61(4), 643-658. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231201447.
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231201447
dc.identifier.issn1460-3578
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14417/3315
dc.issue.number4
dc.journal.titleJournal of Peace Research
dc.language.isoen
dc.page.total40
dc.publisherSage
dc.relation.departmentInternational Relations
dc.relation.entityIE University
dc.relation.schoolIE School of Politics, Economics & Global Affairs
dc.rightsAttribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.rights.accessRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/deed.en
dc.subject.keywordInternational conflict
dc.titleLeader age and international conflict: A regression discontinuity analysis
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.version.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
dc.volume.number61
dspace.entity.typePublication
relation.isAuthorOfPublication2a64046b-da6c-4983-a3ad-21b5585f7d58
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery2a64046b-da6c-4983-a3ad-21b5585f7d58
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Leader age and international conflict.pdf
Size:
1.59 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download
Collections
Research Articles