Incorporating Temperature-Dependent Mortality into Projected Life Tables

Abstract

Climate change may affect mortality patterns through changes in temperature exposure, with potential implications for life tables and life-contingent insurance liabilities. For insurers, the relevant question is not to predict a single future outcome but to understand how alternative climate pathways could impact mortality assumptions and financial results under different scenarios. This paper presents a methodology for incorporating temperature-dependent mortality into projected life tables at the city level. The approach integrates epidemiological temperature--mortality relationships with standard actuarial mortality projection frameworks while preserving existing actuarial practices. Climate effects are introduced through a transparent, age- and year-specific multiplicative adjustment to baseline all-cause mortality rates.