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Is There a War Party? Party Change, the Left–Right Divide, and International Conflict

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dc.contributor.authorBertoli, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorDafoe, Allan
dc.contributor.authorTrager, Robert
dc.contributor.rorhttps://ror.org/02jjdwm75
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-08T12:08:21Z
dc.date.available2024-11-08T12:08:21Z
dc.date.issued2018-05-09
dc.description.abstractAre leaders from certain parties particularly likely to engage in military conflict? This question is difficult to answer because of selection bias. For example, countries may be more likely to elect right-wing leaders if their publics are more hawkish or if the international system is particularly dangerous. Put simply, who comes to power is not random, which makes causal inference difficult. We overcome this problem by using a regression discontinuity design. Specifically, we look at close presidential elections that were essentially “tossups” between two candidates. We find that electing right-wing candidates increases state aggression. We also find that electing candidates from challenger parties makes countries much more likely to initiate military disputes, particularly in the first year of the new leader’s term. This result is consistent with other studies that find that the likelihood of state aggression increases following major leadership transitions.
dc.description.peerreviewedyes
dc.description.statusPublished
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.citationBertoli, A., Dafoe, A., & Trager, R. F. (2019). Is There a War Party? Party Change, the Left–Right Divide, and International Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 63(4), 950-975. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002718772352
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1177/0022002718772352
dc.identifier.issn1552-8766
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14417/3314
dc.issue.number4
dc.journal.titleJournal of Conflict Resolution
dc.language.isoen
dc.page.total31
dc.publisherSage
dc.relation.departmentInternational Relations
dc.relation.entityIE University
dc.relation.schoolIE School of Politics, Economics & Global Affairs
dc.rightsAttribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.rights.accessRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/deed.en
dc.subject.keywordInternational conflict
dc.titleIs There a War Party? Party Change, the Left–Right Divide, and International Conflict
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.version.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
dc.volume.number63
dspace.entity.typePublication
relation.isAuthorOfPublication2a64046b-da6c-4983-a3ad-21b5585f7d58
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery2a64046b-da6c-4983-a3ad-21b5585f7d58
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