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Economic Performance, Individual Evaluations, and the Vote: Investigating the Causal Mechanism

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dc.contributor.authorBecher, Michael
dc.contributor.rorhttps://ror.org/02jjdwm75
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-20T11:19:17Z
dc.date.available2025-01-20T11:19:17Z
dc.date.issued2013-10
dc.description.abstractWhile there are many studies on the impact of the economy on elections, there is little evidence on the full mechanism of economic voting implied by performance-based theories of elections. Addressing the scarcity of evidence on the mechanism, this study provides the first estimates of the linkage between macroeconomic performance, individual economic evaluations, and vote choice. Building on recent advances in the statistical analysis of causal mechanisms, we conduct a causal mediation analysis in a data set covering 151 surveys in 18 countries. We find that the effect of economic performance on the incumbent vote is largely accounted for by voters’ retrospective evaluations of the national economy. The effect is stronger in contexts where policymaking power is concentrated rather than dispersed. Altogether, the results imply that the performance-based channel of voting is more relevant in accounting for election outcomes than suggested by recent individual-level studies.
dc.description.peerreviewedyes
dc.description.statusPublished
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.citationBecher, M., & Donnelly, M. (2013). Economic performance, individual evaluations, and the vote: Investigating the causal mechanism. The Journal of Politics, 75(4), 968-979. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381613000959
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381613000959
dc.identifier.issn1468-2508
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14417/3466
dc.issue.number4
dc.journal.titleThe Journal of Politics
dc.language.isoen
dc.page.final979
dc.page.initial968
dc.page.total11
dc.publisherhttps://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1017/S0022381613000959
dc.relation.departmentComparative Politics
dc.relation.entityIE University
dc.relation.schoolIE School of Politics, Economics & Global Affairs
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.rights.accessRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.titleEconomic Performance, Individual Evaluations, and the Vote: Investigating the Causal Mechanism
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.version.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
dc.volume.number75
dspace.entity.typePublication
relation.isAuthorOfPublication64459ea7-0faa-4600-9041-a4f317ab9579
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery64459ea7-0faa-4600-9041-a4f317ab9579
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