Rebel Strategies and the Prospects for Peace

Qiu, Xiaoyan (Christy)

Publication:
Rebel Strategies and the Prospects for Peace

dc.contributor.author	Qiu, Xiaoyan (Christy)
dc.contributor.ror	https://ror.org/02jjdwm75
dc.date.accessioned	2025-04-23T10:40:46Z
dc.date.available	2025-04-23T10:40:46Z
dc.date.issued	2022-01-19
dc.description.abstract	Prominent formal theories of conflict provide considerable insight into how civil wars begin and end, but offer little understanding of how they proceed during wartime. One prevalent pattern is that rebel strategies vary significantly within conflicts over time, from guerrilla to conventional tactics. Why do rebels switch between different fighting strategies? How does the transition affect civil war negotiations? I develop a model of rebel–government negotiation in which rebels choose fighting strategies throughout a multiperiod war. The analysis shows that rebels switch from guerrilla to conventional tactics after gaining strength, and the expectation of growth delays rebels' transition to conventional fighting. The potential switch between different fighting strategies hurts the prospects for peace and prolongs civil wars. I identify the generic conditions under which peace is infeasible, no matter how belligerents negotiate. These conditions characterize the incipient stages of many rebellions, thereby explaining the lack of serious negotiations early on.
dc.description.peerreviewed	yes
dc.description.status	Published
dc.format	application/pdf
dc.identifier.citation	Qiu, X. (2022). Rebel strategies and the prospects for peace. American journal of political science, 66(1), 140-155. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12647.
dc.identifier.doi	https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12647
dc.identifier.issn	1540-5907
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14417/3747
dc.issue.number	1
dc.journal.title	American Journal of Political Science
dc.language.iso	en
dc.page.final	155
dc.page.initial	140
dc.page.total	16
dc.publisher	Wiley
dc.relation.department	International Relations
dc.relation.entity	IE University
dc.relation.school	IE School of Politics, Economics & Global Affairs
dc.rights	Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.rights.accessRights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri	https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.en
dc.title	Rebel Strategies and the Prospects for Peace
dc.type	info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.version.type	info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.volume.number	66
dspace.entity.type	Publication
relation.isAuthorOfPublication	25be8601-7df3-4ae3-9d90-8959a82ed326
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery	25be8601-7df3-4ae3-9d90-8959a82ed326